Our partner Thiago Cardoso Araújo and our consultant Luiz Felipe Monteiro Seixas have published an article in JOTA in which they discuss predictive markets in Brazil and the limits of the regulatory powers of the National Monetary Council (CMN).
The authors note that, on 24 April, the CMN published Resolution CMN No. 5,298/2026, which prohibits, in Brazil, the offering and trading of derivative contracts whose underlying assets are sporting events, online games, or events of a political, electoral, social, cultural or entertainment nature.
According to Luiz and Thiago, “the immediate reaction tends to frame the measure as yet another manifestation of the Brazilian regulatory response to innovations that challenge existing categories. The diagnosis may well be correct, but it is incomplete”.
In the text, they further state that “the problem with CMN Resolution No. 5,298/2026 is not merely political or economic, but legal in nature. The CMN has, by administrative resolution, prohibited contracts of a category that Brazilian law has never defined in statute”.